September sales fail to keep pace with inflation

Inflation continued to play a major role in determining the direction and magnitude of changes in sales estimates, subtracting 8.2 percentage points from growth rates for September and 8.3% from the first-nine-month comparisons. As a result, Cochise County’s nominal retail sales increase of 5.9% in the September comparisons was adjusted to the 2.3% drop, while year-to-date nominal growth of 6.3% became a 2.0% inflation-adjusted decline.

Cochise County’s restaurant and bar sales also failed to keep pace with the rate of inflation with sales down 2.4% in September and 1.7% for the first nine months, after the inflation adjustment. Statewide, Arizona’s restaurant and bar sales were up 4.8% in September and 9.6% for January through September, after inflation.

Cochise County’s hotel/motel receipts were down 8.8% in the September comparisons but were up 9.4% for the first nine months.

Statewide, lodging receipts were up 3.9% in September and 26.4% for the January-through-September period.

Sales by remote sellers (those without a physical presence in Arizona and with annual gross sales in-state of $100,000 or more) were down 1.6% in Cochise County in September, after inflation, compared to a 9.9% increase statewide. For the first nine months of 2022, remote sales were up 0.9% in Cochise County and 10.2% statewide.

At the city level, estimated retail sales in Benson were down 6.9% in September, after inflation, but were up 0.5% for the first nine months of 2022. Restaurant and bar sales were up 13.5% in September but were down 10.2% for January through September. Hotel/motel receipts in Benson were down 0.3% in September and 3.0% for the first nine months of the year.

In Bisbee, retail sales were down 0.7% in the September comparisons and 13.1% for the first nine months, after inflation. Restaurant and bar sales were up 28.4% in September and 32.0% for January through September. Bisbee’s hotel/motel receipts were down 20.9% in September but were up 64.5% for the first nine months of 2022.

In Douglas, retail sales were down 3.3% in the September comparisons but were up 0.4% for the first nine months. Restaurant and bar sales were down 2.6% in September and 2.7% for January through September. (Hotel/motel estimates are unavailable for Douglas due to the small number of establishments and state department of revenue confidentiality rules.)

Huachuca City’s retail sales were up 2.0% in the September comparisons but were down 2.3% for the first nine months of 2022. (Restaurant and bar and hotel/motel estimates are not available for Huachuca City due to the small number of businesses and tax confidentiality rules.)

Retail sales in Sierra Vista were down 2.1% in September and 2.9% for the first nine months, after the inflation adjustment. Restaurant and bar sales were down 5.3% in September and 4.2% for January through September. Sierra Vista’s hotel/motel receipts were up 2.7% in September and 7.9% for the first nine months of the year.

Tombstone’s retail sales were down 10.0% in September and 8.7% for the first nine months of 2022. Restaurant and bar sales were down 27.6% in September and 13.2% for January through September. Hotel/motel receipts in Tombstone were down 10.6% in September but up 1.0% for the first nine months.

In Willcox, estimated retail sales were up 23.3% in the September comparisons and 2.1% for the first nine months of the year. Restaurant and bar sales were down 1.6% in September and 0.1% for January through September. Willcox hotel/motel receipts were down 6.5% in September and 3.5% for the first nine months of 2022, after adjusting for inflation.

For information on the Cochise County economy, including current and historical data, visit CochiseEconomy.com, a partnership project of the Southeast Arizona Economic Development Group, Arizona G&T Cooperatives and community sponsors.

Submitted by SAEDG